This study investigates farmland transformations in conflict-ridden Eastern Ukraine. Using open-source data from various sources, including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, OCHA Services, The World Bank, Copernicus Data, IPUMS International, Institute for the Study of War, USDA, and USGS.
The methodology starts with comprehensive research on conflict dynamics, incorporating vector data acquisition from various sources and imagery obtained from Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite. By using frontline data to define a target area, the study generates NDVI values for 2021 and 2023, conducting a comparative analysis. The change in vegetation map is then combined with additional rasters depicting farmland distribution, production percentages across oblasts, and prevalent chernozem soil types. This approach ensures a holistic understanding of the interplay between conflict-induced vegetation changes and key agricultural factors, enhancing the depth of analysis and insights.
Results indicate a significant vegetation reduction from 2021 to 2023, impacting 58% of the target area and covering 82,219 square km of farmland, marked as either high or highest impact. Notably, farms closest to the frontline experience substantial disturbances.
Despite these findings, the study lacks a climate comparison control area and does not account for potential global changes. Recommendations for enhancement involve incorporating a more extensive set of merged images and excluding flooded zones, ensuring a more precise examination of vegetation changes directly linked to the conflict.